01Writing
A short read before the US open, every trading day: the moves that matter, the stories behind them, and what is on the calendar. Not financial advice.
Stocks fell a fourth day as the 10-year yield hit 4.94% and chipmakers sank. Oracle rose after hours. August CPI lands at 8:30 a.m. ET.
The 10-year hit its highest since 2023 and 75 of 100 names fell, while Meta and Cloudflare rose on AI launches. PPI lands at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Oil crossed $100 on Iran escalation and the Dow lost 1.18%. But 73 of 100 large caps fell while chips rallied. PPI Thursday, CPI Friday.
August payrolls tripled the 53,000 consensus and hike odds are back near 59%. Oil sits at six-week highs, and CPI lands Friday.
Waller's hold signal cut September hike odds to 50.4% and lifted the S&P 1.06%. August payrolls arrive at 8:30 ET with consensus at just 56,000 jobs.
MongoDB fell 13.5% and Palo Alto 9.3% after both beat and raised. The rest of the market rose. ISM services and jobless claims land this morning.
Dell booked record AI server orders while software fell 5-7%. The market is repricing duration, not AI — and Broadcom reports after today's close.
Global bond yields broke to multi-decade highs overnight and oil kept rising. The bond market, not stocks, is setting the terms before this open.
The Fed chair says rates may still need to rise, and a US strike near Hormuz pushed Brent above $90 over the weekend. Both point the same way.
Salesforce rose 22% and Okta 28%, yet 59 of 100 large caps fell. Marvell dropped on a record quarter. Fed Chair Warsh speaks at 10 a.m. ET.
Nvidia guided to $108 billion and S&P futures rose 0.3%. Salesforce jumped 12.7% after hours. Sticky PCE and a 4.65% 10-year explain the gap.
July PCE and GDP land together at 8:30 ET, Nvidia reports after the bell, and Tuesday's tape was a rotation rather than a rally.